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I did a GSV handicapping study of every race at Aqueduct from November 1st through February 2nd. I have been making money at Aqueduct throughout that period of time. Of course, I have losing days and there are many of my bets that I could outrun even at age 70. On the whole, the GSV is proving to be very reliable. Here are the facts:
1. There were 551 races ran at Aqueduct during that time. The rest of the facts below are based on at least 8 runners/race.
2. There were only 313 races that had 8 or more horses that raced [43% had less than 8!!].
3. Favorites won 33% of the races with 8 or more horses [103 favorites won].
4. Favorites finished second in 23% of their races with .
5. Favorites finished third in 17% of their races .
6. Favorites finished fourth in 7.7% of their races . This fact supports that it does not make sense to use a favorite in the 4th spot of a superfecta.
7. The highest GSV horse in a field won 43 races [13.7%]. They were second in 34 races [11%] and third in 36 races [11.8%]. The highest GSV finished in the money 34.4%.
8. The 2nd highest GSV horse won 40 races [12.8%]. They finished 2nd in 36 races [11.5%] and third in 29 races [9.2%]. The second highest GSV finished in the money 33.5%
9. The 3rd highest GSV won 26 races [8%]. They finished 2nd in 25 races and finished 3rd in 35 races. The 3rd highest GSV finished in the money 27.4%, which means they are a useful bet only in the third position.
10. The 4th highest GSV won 18 races [5.8%]. They finished 2nd in 32 races, and 3rd in 29 races. They finished in the money only 25% of the time. They are not useful to be in any position unless you know they are a better horse than the rest of the field, which means its GSV score is not indicative of its racing ability.
11. Only 12 of the highest GSV horses [of 43] were also favorites, which means that when they win they can pay big prices.
12. 15 of the second highest GSV horses [of 40] were also favorites, which means that they are less of a value on a straight win bet.
13. 12 of 54
third highest GSV and 8 of 24 of the fourth highest GSV were favorites,
which means they are far more likely to be winners only if they are
also favored and little value.
Keen Ice, the highest GSV horse in the
field at 72.96 takes the Travers Stakes-G1 in a great race. Keen
Ice also had the highest DamGSV score at 77.03. High GSV scores
are very important in Classic races, though they do not always win by
any means. The winner can pay a big price like in this race.
American Pharoah 2nd in a game finish after being softened up by
Frosted (3rd highest GSV score).
[Led wire to wire at 24/1] Video here
Encosta De Lago
Seeking The Gold
Key To The Mint
Pioneerof The Nile
Looking At Lucky
Stop The Music
||Take Charge Indy
||Shakin It Up
All GSV scores are generated from a mathematical calculation balancing the sire’s half of the pedigree with the dam’s half of the pedigree based on my GRASP scores. GRASP stands for (G)enetics, (R)acing (A)bility and (S)tud (P)erformance. To generate a GRASP score for a sire or a mare, I enter over 400 fields of information with each field weighted to its importance in producing top class race horses. The highest GRASP score currently is in the mid 90’s and it is theoretically possible to score 100, but none have done so as there are always minefields in a pedigree.
The GSV score is produced by averaging the GRASP scores by each generation in the sire’s half of the pedigree with that of the dam’s half of the pedigree so if the MaleGSV score 70 and the DamGSV is 50, the GSV score is 60, etc. In addition, I also generate a GSV2 score by comparing a horse’s GSV score with that of the average GSV score for all sons and daughters of his in my GSV databank. Since there are now over 124,650 horses in my GSV databank, if the GSV2 score is above that of the GSV score, then this horse has a better bottom half of the pedigree than that usually bred to the stallion. This is because the top half of the pedigrees that belongs to the stallion never changes and only that of the dam changes. If the GSV2 score is below that of the GSV score because the dam’s pedigree is much worse than the average for the sire, I don’t subtract the difference and the two scores are the same [GSV=66.50, GSV2=66.50]. If the mare has improved on the sire’s average, I add the difference up to a maximum of 5 points as it really doesn’t add more validity to the number especially if the sire has been bred to a lot of poor mares [GSV=66.50, GSV2=69.50]. The difference is 3.0, which means that the dam of the horse in question is 3.0 better than that of the average for the sire. Even bred to the best mare possible the GSV2 would not go beyond 71.50 [GSV + 5 points] in this case.
The 2016 GSV Professional program will instantly generate GSV and GSV2 scores for 112,650 horses currently racing or retired if their pedigrees are into GSV databank. Instead of 25 blocks of pedigrees that could be instantly generated, I have reduced that to the actual maximum field size of many races, which is 12. This way you can type in the name of entrant in a minute or so or simply paste the field names from my GSV race cards into the race block at the top of the program in the matter of seconds. To the right there is another block, which lists the horses you just typed in by their GSV scores and color coded for easy comparison of strength.
I include a Block 13, which will almost
instantly generate a five generation pedigree of full brothers/sisters
or a combination of completely different sires as long as they are in
the section needed. You simply type in the
sire’s name, the broodmare sire’s name, the sire of the 2nd,
3rd and 4th dams. If
all 5 are found, you will instantly generate a five generation pedigree. Currently, there are 5823 sires in the Sire
cell, 8523 sires in the Broodmare sire cell, 10,494 in the sire of the 2nd
dam, 7796 in the sire of the 3rd dam and 18707 in the sire
of the 4th dam. You can also
use this block to generate a hypothetical GSV score by putting in a
sire of your choice and filling in the bottom half of the pedigree with
that our your mare.
Some pedigrees are so obscure or new or in an area of the world that I usually don’t track results like India that I do not have one or more of the names in the five sections above. In that case I have included a Block 14, where you simply type in all five generations and the program will generate a GSV score for you. If a name is not found, you simply type in ‘ unknown ’ into that cell and the program will generate a default score of 27.00 points and use that in the calculations. Also Block 14 is very useful to use hypothetically as you only have to type the sire half in once or the dam half in once and then leave it be until you need to change it if you want to look at different combinations.
In addition, I have a color code which will tell you which horses in each block are above, average or below average in the pedigree so you can visually see where the weak links [mine fields] lie in a pedigree and devise a plan to minimize their faults through wise, selective matings.
You can order the 2016 GSV Professional Program off this page if you wish to use PayPal or send me an email notifying me that a check is in the mail or to get banking information so that you can arrange a bank transfer. I also take cash should we meet somewhere convenient.