The Daily Double!  GRASP and GSV [Updated October 9, 2009]
GRASP: A Must for Breeders, Buyers and those who Breed-To-Race

G	=Genetic: Measures performances of males & females within 5 generations, pedigree construction, tail-female line strength, etc.	25%
R A	=Racing Ability: Measures individual racing brilliance, class, earnings, blacktype events, speed vs stamina, type, etc.	25%
S P	=Stud Performance: Measures success as a sire or broodmare, % of runners, winners, SW's, 2yo winners, Average Winning Distance, etc.	50%

GSV: "A Must for Handicappers, Stud Farms, Owners and Breeders"

G S V

The GSV predicts thoroughbred performance before the foal is born based on the Genetic, Racing Ability and Stud Performance (GRASP) of all horses in its 5 generation pedigree. Prior to 2009, the GSV omitted the first five dams in tail-female line, which made it a great tool to be used with a sales catalog page as the GSV measured the rest.  The GSV can change according to the recent stud performance of individuals in its pedigree and is updated yearly. Note: the horse itself can never change its own GSV score, so its own performance on the track will directly influence the GSV

UP: How the GSV score compares to the average GSV score produced by that sire

U P

Another breeding and handicapping tool has been added to my GSV numbers.  I now generate an UP score based on how the GSV number of a horse or hypothetical foal compares to the average GSV number of that sire's average foal.  An UP score of +2.00 indicates the generated GSV number is 2 points higher than GSV average by that sire.

Originator: George William Smith:
#12, 9630  82nd Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, T6C 1A1, 780-439-2577 email  thematchmaker@shaw.ca
Understanding the GSV and GSV2

If you answer "YES", then you will be able to use the GSV & GSV2 to help you.  Keep reading to learn all about the GSV & GSV2.  The answers to your questions about the GSV & GSV2 that led you to this page should be found below or linked to this page. 

GSV & GSV2 are numerical scores developed by George William Smith, known for his pedigree analysis skills that led to two Eclipse Champions, Farda Amiga and Vindication; European Horse of the Year, St. Jovite; and connected to hundreds of stakewinners.

Throughout my career I have constantly been asked about the strength of pedigrees.  Clients ask if they should purchase or sell a certain horse, breed this mare to that stallion to produce a certain type of foal, etc.  I usually answer that I need to take an in-depth look at the pedigree, race record and stud performance so that I might be as accurate as possible about the potentials of the pedigrees involved. 

For over 30 years I have been generating a score for their thoroughbred so that my clients may more easily be made aware of the strength of the throughbred I am researching for them compared to other thoroughbreds.  It is called my GRASP score.  GRASP stands for Genetic, Racing Ability and Stud Performance. 

The Genetic score arrives with the foal at birth, but may change throughout its lifetime as its parents and 5 generations of ancestors do better or worse at stud as time goes by.  The change can be dramatic if both parents are in the early stages of their stud career or slight if both have been in the stud a long time. Usually, the foal can not do a thing about it's Genetic score, but if the foal is very, very good it might have some impact on the stud career of its parents. 

The Racing Ability score is earned during it's racing career and once retired does not change.  The Racing Ability score can help you understand you whether the horse got its fair share of the good genes or not.  If a horse has a high Genetic score but cannot outrun a fat man, the Racing Ability score will reflect that it did not get much of the 'good stuff' from its parents.  On the other hand, if the foal has a high Genetic score and runs like the wind, the Racing Ability score added to the Genetic score will be very high, predicting that there is much potential in this horse when sent to stud.  Thus, I use the GRA score as a guide on how much potential there is in the horse before it produces a foal.  I always publish the GRA scores of potential stallions so that my clients know ahead of time who I predict will succeed and who are likely to fail.

The Stud Performance score is earned during the stud career of the horse and until it no longer has foals from its producing daughters racing on the track.  Depending on how many foals and the length the horse stood at stud, this score often changes even after the death of the horse.  The older a horse is or would have been, the less this value changes.

The GSV & GSV2 are derived from the GRASP scores of the 31 thoroughbred sires found within 5 generations and weighted according to how close up they appear, but is not male dependent like dosage, etc. The GSV actually measures the Genetic Strength of a thoroughbred.  The GSV & GSV2 is a perfect supplement to catalog page of a horse for sale as the GSV & GSV2 objectively measures the genetic strength of the horse, whereas a catalog page is highly biased toward the best ancestors in a horse's tail-female line pedigree.

The Daily Double: GRASP and the GSV

My GRASP databank has over 400 fields of data, of which some are not weighted or weighted according their apparent benefit in producing better thoroughbreds while racing and/or later in the stud.  The GRASP score is earned by actual performance.

GSV stands for Genetic Strength Value.  It is based on five generations of GRASP scores.  It is a hypothetical score.  The horse does not earn its GSV score.  It is the score that an average hypothetical mating between a stallion and a broodmare generates. The actual horse might be far better or worse than what the GSV score indicates depending on the combinations of genetic material actually received in the mating.  The GSV2 now includes a compatibility factor called the UP score.  If the GSV score is 65.00 and the UP score is 2.00, the GSV2 score is 67.00.  Note: The UP score has a maximum positive score of 5.00.  Minus scores are not subtracted from the GSV to get the GSV2 score.  In the above example, if the UP score is -3.12, the GSV2 score is still 65.00.

The GSV scores are calculated by adding the GRASP scores of each generation and getting an average for each generation for the male half of the pedigree and then doing the same for the female half of the pedigree.  I then average the male and female scores to get the GSV score.  By calculating both halves of the pedigree separately, using both sires and mares, the GSV of 2009 is more reliable than the old GSV score, which used to be calculated by averaging each generation separately, thus giving the sire of the horse more weight as it is the only sire in the first generation. 

Through October, 2009, the GSV is proving reliable as a handicapping and breeding tool.

4.  The GSV & GSV2 theoretically combines them, but just as two bays may produce a chestnut what is wishful thinking may not happen.  The foal may get a certain set of genes and its full brother might have received a lot of different ones.  But the GSV & GSV2 score will be the same for both.  It is a theoretical score.
   a.  The GSV & GSV2 score is produced before the birth of the foal, but may change as the stud performance of the sires within 5 generations changes it because of improvements or a lack of sustaining prior performance.
   b.  A yearling with a high GSV & GSV2 and legs that go in each direction should be ignored.  
   c.  A yearling with a low GSV & GSV2 and correct legs with a balanced individual may be a good buy.
   d.  A yearling with a high GSV & GSV2, correct and a good walk should never be ignored.

5.  Once the foal hits the ground, the foal begins to accumulate points toward its own GRASP score.  Thus, full brothers may have radically different GRASP scores achieved in their lifetime and thus generate entirely different GSV & GSV2 scores for their foals.

It allows you to make better decisions using hypothetical matings, etc., all other things being equal, in choosing the right broodmare, stallion for your mare, weanling, yearling and 2YO's-in-training sales, along with normal conformation checks, etc. 

The GSV & GSV2 is showing good value as a handicapping tool, regardless of the class of field or race track.  However, using Graded/Group Stakes and Stakes at major world-wide tracks may yield the most value.  A validation study that was done on the GSV2 that showed the higher the GSV & GSV2, the greater the likelihood of a better stakewinner.  This study used over 10,000 thoroughbreds and races from throughout the world.

Of the 18,043 horses in the databank: ~3000 are fully researched good sires from all areas of the world born after 1875; ~2000 horses that have raced in at least one graded/group race; ~ 1000 maidens that raced in Great Britain; ~2000 horses that raced in England; Ireland, France, Germany, South Africa, South America, Japan, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Australia; and ~8000 horses that have raced in North America at the major tracks in Southern California, KY and New York, but not in Group/Graded races; and ~2000 that raced at the minor tracks. 

Clearly, from looking at the stats above, the GSV databank is skewed to horses that race in better class company and at major tracks.  It is important to know where a horse is racing and in what company to fully understand how a particular GSV score measures up.

GSV	#horses		GSV	#horses		GSV	#horses		GSV	#horses		GSV	#horses
40	2		50	67		60	610		70	924		80	230
41	1		51	69		61	681		71	815		81	218
42	2		52	89		62	735		72	836		82	130
43	1		53	140		63	752		73	729		83	86
44	4		54	92		64	864		74	728		84	36
45	4		55	250		65	875		75	649		85	39
46	14		56	239		66	866		76	571		86	23
47	14		57	262		67	965 Most	77	442		87	12
48	23		58	464		68	951		78	414		88	5
49	33		59	537		69	953		79	339		89	3
												90	2

Mill Reef		85.02
River Special		85.03
Arazi			85.05
Spinning World		85.05
Sauce Boat		85.06
Yell			85.07
Stravinsky		85.11
Yukon			85.15
Obligato		85.18
Always Fair		85.19
Local Talent		85.19
Aptitude		85.20
Boldnesian		85.26
Atan			85.28
Key To Mint		85.28
Key To The Mint		85.28
Northern Flagship	85.30
Abernant		85.30
Venetian Jester		85.30
Bold Lad (U.S.)		85.32
Lyphard			85.33
Chieftain		85.35
Staff Writer		85.39
Brogan			85.45
Magesterial		85.46
Helmsman		85.55
Alycidon		85.57
Citation		85.60
Raja Baba		85.61
Naval Issue		85.75
Slew Dancer		85.79
Minshaanshu Amad	85.86
Cornish Prince		85.89
Ali Oop			85.92
Rio Verde		85.92
Dancing Wizard		85.93
Hero's Honor		85.93
Polish Numbers		85.94
Be My Guest		85.97
True Colors		86.01
Northern Horizon	86.02
Key To The Kingdom	86.10
Raja's Revenge		86.16
Nordic Legend		86.19
Mashaallah		86.29
Sportin' Life		86.29
Mambo			86.31
Slavic			86.33
Plugged Nickle		86.41
Impressive		86.44
Petingo			86.48
Compliance		86.50
El Gran Senor		86.50
Try My Best		86.50
Court Martial		86.51
Turn-To			86.66
Helioscope		86.68
Settlement Day		86.76
Creme Dela Creme	86.77
Wolfhound		86.94
On-And-On		86.96
Northern Dancer		87.07
Francis S.		87.09
Turn To Reason		87.12
Outing Class		87.17
Owen Tudor		87.22
Tell			87.27
Poker			87.33
Red God			87.44
Pas Seul		87.48
Gulf Stream		87.74
Sovereign Dancer	87.84
Silver Buck		87.92
Aureole			88.24
Iron Ruler		88.32
Topsider		88.36
Tom Cat			88.42
Tumiga			88.65
Nearctic		89.17
Al Hattab		89.37
Royal Charger		89.76
Rasper II		90.08
Jaipur			90.31